In October 2016, we urged our readers to go short in 10-year bund, at the breakout of 162.5 with an initial target of 160 area and subsequent longer-term target of 153. The article is available here, http://www.econotimes.com/FxWirePro-10-year-bund-heads-for-a-sell-breakout-367667
In a subsequent article, we have reaffirmed our outlook and also shared our forecast that the spread between the 2-year bund and the 10-year bund would widen over time. That review is available here, http://www.econotimes.com/FxWirePro-Keep-riding-the-bund-short-call-review-397028 . In addition to that, In January 2017, we had called on our readers to go short in 10-year bund and long the German benchmark stock index around 11560.
In our review on 28th February, we warned our readers that our short call in bund is under threat due to election uncertainties in Europe and warned that it might break the stop loss around 168 if the Dutch election turns out in the favor right-wing candidate Geert Wilders. However, that has not happened and thankfully we maintained the stop loss. The 10-year bund reversed course after reaching as high as 166.3
In several subsequent reviews, we reiterated our commitment to the short side of bund though the movement has been much slower than we originally anticipated. That is not surprising, however, given the fact that the European Central Bank (ECB) has taken up a very gradual approach when it came to winding monetary policies. We even urged our readers to add short positions in bund, when it was retesting the resistance line, here, https://www.econotimes.com/FxWirePro-Call-review-Add-short-positions-in-10-year-bund-1067353
In our last review, we have extended the final target for 10-year bund from 151.3 to 145.
In this review, we acknowledge that the 10-year bund has reached another interim target at 157.3 and beyond. We remain very hopeful of this so far successful trade.
Reached targets – 160, 159, 158, 157.3
Pending targets – 155,153, 151.3, and 145
The 10-year bund is currently trading at 156.6, ahead of ECB’s rate decision.