EURUSD’s interim bullish swings have been exhausted at 1.1201 (i.e.21-DMA levels), as a result, the minor trend goes in the range today. Prior to which, back-to-back shooting star pattern candles have occurred at 1.1212 and 1.1213 levels, consequently, the failure swings at 21DMAs likely to plummet prices further(refer daily chart). The current price (1.1195 levels) is sensing little overbought pressures.
Market profile on 4H:
Point of control (PoC) is at 1.1195
Unfair highs – 1.1182
Unfair lows – 1.1219
Value area (VA) – 1.1242 – 1.1196
21-SMA – 1.1201
7-DMA – 1.12
RSI – Shows downward convergence that is indicating the faded strength in previous interim uptrend. If the selling sentiments sustain, then the extension of slumps seem to be most likely. One shouldn’t be surprised by some more dips to stimulate the major downtrend.
Fast stochastic curves - %d crossover indicates the overbought pressures and the intensified selling momentum.
To substantiate the bearish stance, the trend indicator shows bearish MACD crossovers to indicate the downtrend to prolong further.
On a broader perspective, the major trend restrained constantly below 21EMAs, downtrend resumes bearish swings on last month’s engulfing pattern 1.1074 levels (refer monthly plotting).
Both leading oscillators RSI and stochastic curves indicate intensified bearish momentum on this timeframe as well.
Trade Tips: Well, on trading perspective, at spot reference: 1.1188 levels, it is advisable to tunnel option spread using upper strikes at 1.1205 and lower strikes at 1.1160 levels. The strategy is likely to fetch leveraged yields as long as the underlying spot price keeps dipping but remains above upper strikes on the expiration.
Alternatively, on hedging grounds, we advocate initiating shorts in EURUSD futures contracts of Aug’19 delivery. Writers in a futures contract are expected to maintain margins in order to hold short positions.