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Aktier/I&T: 2018 kan blive et godt år trods bump på vejen

Source RBB StockExchange Wednesday, 27 Dec, 2017 12:59:13 GMT
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Som aktieinvestor skal man være forberedt på bump i form af kursudsving i det nye år. Men selv om vejen kan blive snoet, så vil der undervejs være flere gode muligheder for at gøre en god investering, og hele året vil se fornuftigt ud afkastmæssigt.

Det vurderer seniorrådgiver Henrik Arnfred i Investering & Tryghed, der karakteriserer fondmæglerselskabet som lidt mere behersket optimist end flere andre i investeringsbranchen. Selskabet har omkring 10 mia. kr. under forvaltning.

- Konkret ser vi et aktieafkast i Norden på 5-10 pct. i 2018 , mens afkastet i det globale aktiemarked skønnes på 5-6 pct., oplyser han til Ritzau Finans.

- Investering & Tryghed tror selektivt på aktier og går ind i det nye år med en lille overvægt på aktiesiden, siger seniorrådgiveren, men pointerer, at det er vigtigt for I&T at have likviditet, fordi det ventes, at der kommer turbulens.

- Og så vil vi gerne kunne supplere i de aktier, vi tror på, siger Henrik Arnfred.

Det er typisk store aktier som Chr. Hansen og Carlsberg i Danmark og et selskab som Industrivarden i Sverige, oplyser han.

- Vi har også en række mindre selskaber, vi fokuserer på, men dem holder vi lidt tættere til kroppen , siger han.

I&T karakteriserer 2017 som "et overraskende positivt aktieår på trods af dramatiske begivenheder verden over".

Ved indgangen til i år var mange eksperter noget skeptiske ifølge Henrik Arnfred. Dels på grund af valget af Trump som præsident i USA, dels på grund af bekymring over udfaldene af valgene i Tyskland, Holland og Frankrig. Til gengæld var flere enige om, at året ville bringe vækst til virksomhederne.

- Vi venter, at væksten vil fortsætte i 2018, men der er flere usikkerhedsmomenter, særligt fordi store dele af aktiemarkedet er højt prissat i øjeblikket, siger Henrik Arnfred.

FEM AFGØRENDE FAKTORER FOR 2018

Henrik Arnfred peger på fem ting, der bliver afgørende for, hvordan aktiemarkederne udvikler sig i 2018.

For det første er markedsrenterne det altdominerende tema. Den nuværende prissætning af aktier og andre risikoaktiver er baseret på ekstremt lave renter, og en uventet stor rentestigning vil kunne skabe større forskydninger på aktie- og kreditobligationsmarkederne.

For det andet kan flaskehalsproblemer blive et problem.

- Den globale vækst forventes fortsat at være robust i 2018, men der kan opstå flaskehalsproblemer, fordi der er ved at opstå mangel på kvalificeret arbejdskraft i mange lande. Det gælder i udpræget grad i USA, men også Tyskland og Danmark har stigende udfordringer på det område, påpeger han.

Kvaliteten i regnskaberne, der aflægges, er også en faktor.

- Et skuffende kvartalsregnskab giver markante kursklø, hvilket eksempelvis Vestas og Coloplast har mærket i år, og Novo Nordisk måtte bide i græsset af samme årsag sidste år.

- Omvendt er mange virksomheder så trimmede, at små ændringer i omsætningen i stor udstrækning sætter sig på bundlinjen. Det er særligt på de nordiske og europæiske selskaber, at regnskaberne ventes at overraske positivt, supplerer Henrik Arnfred.

En fjerde risikofaktor er politik.

- Den politiske udvikling i Europa kan igen blive ganske afgørende. Brexit-forhandlingerne mellem EU og England kan påvirke det kommende valg i Italien og give rygvind til EU-modstanderne. En øget uvilje mod EU vil være negativt for aktierne og vækstudsigterne, påpeges det.

Sidste faktor er regulering. Kommende regulering af især den finansielle sektor kan vise sig at være en vækstbremse.

- Kapitaldækningskravene til banker er positive i forhold til at undgå en ny finanskrise, men omvendt gør de det svært for bankerne at tjene penge, påpeger Henrik Arnfred.

/ritzau/FINANS

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