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New Zealand bonds slump at close as investors shrug-off weak gdt auction data; RBNZ policy decision in focus

Source FxWire Pro Wednesday, 8 Nov, 2017 06:03:01 GMT
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New Zealand bonds closed lower Wednesday as investors shrugged off weak GlobalDairyTrade Price Index data. Markets remained focused on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s last monetary policy decision scheduled to be held on Thursday.

At the time of closing, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to its price, jumped 3-1/2 basis points to 2.87 percent, the yield on the 20-year note also surged 3-1/2 basis points to 3.39percent and the yield on short-term 2-year ended 1-1/2 basis points higher at 2.02 percent.

Dairy product prices fell for the third straight time at the latest Global Dairy Trade auction as whole milk powder extended its decline and skim milk powder recovered. The GDT price index fell 3.5 percent from the previous auction two weeks ago to USD3,105, the lowest since April. Some 35,072 tonnes of product was sold, down from 35,669 tonnes at the previous auction. Whole milk powder fell 5.5 percent to USD2,852 a tonne. Following the release, the NZD/USD has dipped by 10 points to a session low at 0.6905.

Markets expect the RBNZ to keep the OCR on hold at 1.75 percent and give the same neutral policy guidance that it has given all year. The economic outlook has deteriorated, and the housing market is weaker than the RBNZ anticipated.

But the exchange rate has fallen sharply, meaning the overall outlook for medium-term inflation is broadly unchanged. The change of Government makes the economic outlook more uncertain. The RBNZ is better off waiting and seeing how Government policy evolves, rather than making bold changes at this point. There would be a very little financial market reaction to a neutral MPS along these lines.

Meanwhile, the NZX 50 index closed 0.11 percent lower at 8,040.42, while at 05:00GMT, the FxWirePro's Hourly NZD Strength Index remained neutral at -36.36 (a reading above +75 indicates a bullish trend, while that below -75 a bearish trend). For more details, visit http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex

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