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Carlsberg/Jyske: Første kvartal kan byde på positiv overraskelse

Source RBB StockExchange Thursday, 18 Apr, 2024 08:16:08 GMT
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Der er mulighed for en positiv overraskelse, når Carlsberg kommer med sin kvartalsopdatering den 30. april, vurderer Jyske Bank.

- For første kvartal venter vi en organisk salgs- og volumenvækst på 6,1 pct. og 2,2 pct., hvor konsensus i markedet forventer 5,0 pct. og 1,7 pct., skriver senioranalytiker Henrik Hallengreen Laustsen i en optakt.

Da der er tale om et sæsonmæssigt lille kvartal, venter han dog ingen opjustering af prognosen for 2024.

Men kvartalet vil formentlig bekræfte, at bryggeriet er godt på vej mod et fornuftigt 2024 understøttet af højere priser og et solidt momentum i både Vesteuropa og Kina.

Samlet set er der dermed gode muligheder for, at Carlsberg vil overgå sin prognose for 2024, der forudser en organisk EBIT-vækst på 1-5 pct. i 2024.

- Både vi og markedet forventer, at selskabet leverer bedre end deres egen guidance for året, skriver Henrik Hallengreen Laustsen med henvisning til Jyske Banks estimat på 5,1 pct. og konsensus, der ligger på 5,7 pct.

Der er dog stadig usikkerhedsmomenter.

- Den største svingfaktor i prognosen må være sommervejret i tredje kvartal. Volumenvæksten i 2024 styrkes af et let sammenligningsgrundlag i tredje kvartal på grund af vejret, EM i fodbold og OL, og at forbrugerne får lønstigninger i 2024, hvilket vil gavne købekraften.

Samtidig er priserne steget.

- Prisstigningerne skal modveje en stigning i de samlede omkostninger per hektoliter. Løn- og logistikomkostninger stiger, mens de gennemsnitlige direkte produktionsomkostninger per hektoliter forventes at udvikle sig fladt, vurderer Jyske Bank-analytikeren.

Han gentager anbefalingen "køb" af bryggeriet med et uændret kursmål på 1100 kr.

Carlsberg-aktien stiger torsdag formiddag 0,7 pct .til 901 kr.

.\\˙ MarketWire

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